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DeNA (2432) ( english | Japanese version ) Aug 30, 2010
Raising rating to Outperform as leader in era of information explosion
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Atsuo,Takahashi Pages 12
We are raising our rating on DeNA from Underperform to Outperform, and setting a price objective of JPY3,300 on the issue. We are revising our previously conservative earnings estimates, and we now expect OP growth momentum to continue outpacing the consensus in FY3/11 and FY3/12. Japan is approaching an era of large-scale information explosion, and we expect DeNA to be a leader in the SNS market. We believe its influence over mobile phone carriers could possibly increase over the long term.
Yahoo Japan (4689) ( english | Japanese version ) Aug 25, 2010
Raising rating to Outperform in response to firm progress towards profit targets
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Atsuo,Takahashi Pages 7
We are raising our rating on Yahoo Japan from Neutral to Outperform, while leaving our fair-value estimate (now a price objective) unchanged at JPY34,200. We intend to review our earnings forecasts again after the company has announced its 2Q FY3/11 results, but for now note that the company's strong 1Q results and 2Q guidance suggest that FY3/11 profits may surpass both our current forecasts and those of the consensus. The gap between the current share price and what we estimate to be fair value is now in excess of 10%, prompting us to raise our investment rating in accordance with our rating distribution guidelines.
Dentsu (4324) ( english | Japanese version ) Aug 11, 2010
1Q FY3/11 results: focus on timing of rise in expectations for 2H onward
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Takeshi,Koyama Pages 6
On 11 August, Dentsu announced 1Q FY3/11 results and revisions to its forecasts. OP was favorable in 1Q, up roughly 5x YoY to JPY6.9b. The company revised up its full-year OP forecast from JPY39.7b (a 6.4% YoY increase) to JPY42.2b (a 13.1% YoY increase). We find this unsurprising, as it is in line with our previous estimate of JPY42.0b, but this revision only represents the upside to its 1H forecasts, and we believe there is additional upside potential to the company's forecasts.
Rakuten (4755) ( english | Japanese version ) Aug 06, 2010
2Q FY12/10 results: no surprise in OP progress in e-commerce business
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Atsuo,Takahashi Pages 4
Rakuten announced 2Q FY12/10 results on 5 August. Sales grew 16% YoY to JPY84.9b and OP grew 12% to JPY15.3b. Results surpassed our estimates by 4% for sales and 6% for OP, but this is not enough to prompt a revision of our earnings estimates. Firm financial business earnings were a positive, but results also contained several negatives, including the absence of a profit margin recovery in the core e-commerce business, an increase in borrowings from outside financial institutions, and an expansion in negative free cash flow. The company is accelerating overseas expansion of the e-commerce business, but we beli
Mixi (2121) ( english | Japanese version ) Aug 04, 2010
1Q FY3/11 results: profit up on lower costs, higher revenue; cost rise expected
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Small Cap < 200B
Author Atsuo,Takahashi Pages 4
1Q FY3/11 results at mixi, announced on 4 August, surpassed the company's targets and our forecasts, and the company announced an upward revision to its 1H OP target. However, the company left its full-year OP target unchanged, as it expects costs to increase. The full-year target thus now calls for OP of JPY1.4b in 2H, down 19% from its initial target in real terms.
Fuji Media Holdings (4676) ( english | Japanese version ) Jul 30, 2010
1Q FY3/11 results: confirmation that earnings are ahead of target
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Takeshi,Koyama Pages 3
Fuji Media Holdings announced 1Q FY3/11 results on 29 July, with OP increasing 149.7% YoY to JPY7.6b. Management left its targets unchanged, and we are not revising our estimates. However, spot ad revenues continue to expand briskly in 2Q, and movies are also off to a strong start. We see no apparent short-term risk factors, and view 1Q results as confirmation that earnings are ahead of targets. We reiterate our price objective of JPY180,000 and Outperform rating.
Nippon Television Network (9404) ( english | Japanese version ) Jul 30, 2010
1Q FY3/11 results: full-year targets seem cautious despite 2H uncertainties
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Takeshi,Koyama Pages 5
Nippon Television Network (NTN) released 1Q FY3/11 results on 29 July, simultaneously announcing upward revisions to its 1H and full-year targets. Management upwardly revised its 1H OP forecast from JPY8.1b (down 1.2% YoY) to JPY10.2b (up 24.4%), and full-year OP from JPY25.1b (up 6.5%) to JPY25.7b (up 9.1%). Despite uncertainty over advertising pricing in 2H, we believe there is further upside potential as the full-year OP revision strikes us as overly cautious.
TV Asahi  (9409) ( english | Japanese version ) Jul 30, 2010
1Q FY3/11 results: on track, but no surprises in 1Q results
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Takeshi,Koyama Pages 5
TV Asahi announced 1Q FY3/11 results at 2:10pm during the afternoon session of 30 July. OP came in at JPY2.3b, down 2.0% YoY, which the company commented was slightly ahead of plan target. We think it is possible for the company to surpass its 1H target slightly, since it appears that the advertising business remains brisk in 2Q, but do not anticipate any major surprises.
Yahoo Japan (4689) ( english | Japanese version ) Jul 27, 2010
1Q FY3/11 results: strong start; robust OP growth thanks to cost reductions
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Atsuo,Takahashi Pages 4
Yahoo Japan's 1Q FY3/11 results, announced on 27 July, brought several somewhat positive implications, with respective YoY sales and profit increases of 4% and 10% slightly above our forecasts for 3% sales growth and a 7% profit gain. Although advertising improved further in 1Q, ecommerce remained weak, including weak initial e-commerce operations between China and Japan.
Toei Animation (4816) ( english | Japanese version ) Jul 26, 2010
1Q results: Co. upward revision no surprise, but timing of announcement positive
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Small Cap < 200B
Author Takeshi,Koyama Pages 3
On 26 July, Toei Animation reported results for 1Q FY3/11 and unveiled upward revisions to its 1H and full-year FY3/11 earnings plans. The company revised its full-year OP goal from JPY1.4b, up 39.9% YoY, to JPY2.1b, up 9.8%. The upward revision is sharp but not a surprise to us as the new goal is in line with our forecast of JPY2.2b. In light of these factors, we reiterate our Neutral rating. We reiterate our fair-value estimate of JPY1,700, but we plan to review our earnings forecasts after we interview management.
Yahoo Japan (4689) ( english | Japanese version ) Jun 01, 2010
Catalysts for existing businesses: wireless broadband market, strategic tie-ups
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Atsuo,Takahashi Pages 7
We are raising our rating on Yahoo Japan from Underperform to Neutral and our fair-value estimate from JPY28,480 to JPY34,200. The changes reflect an upward revision to our free cash flow estimate and expected contributions from several catalysts, including shifts in the business environment and the company's strategic tie-ups with DeNA and Alibaba China.
Rakuten (4755) ( english | Japanese version ) May 21, 2010
Acquiring US EC bus. operator; seeking foothold in European, US EC marketplaces
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Atsuo,Takahashi Pages 4
On 20 May, Rakuten announced that it would acquire Buy.com, the ninth largest US e-commerce (EC) business operator by market share, and said that it planned to merge the US business with its own EC segment starting in 2H FY12/10. Rakuten has advocated business development overseas as an important strategy for some time. The deal is valued at $250m (we estimate that enterprise value is JPY20.4b), and we believe the impact on Rakuten's finances and market capitalization will be limited.
Dentsu (4324) ( english | Japanese version ) May 18, 2010
FY3/10 results exceeding company targets a positive development
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Takeshi,Koyama Pages 4
Dentsu announced FY3/10 results on 17 May. The company's FY3/11 OP target of JPY39.7b, up 6.4% YoY, is unsurprising, as it is generally in line with both the market consensus forecast and our previous estimate. On the other hand, while FY3/10 OP declined 13.6% to JPY37.3b, it still exceeded the company's target of JPY33.9b, which we see as a positive development.
Fuji Media Holdings (4676) ( english | Japanese version ) May 14, 2010
FY3/10 results; positive on FY3/11 targets; see upside in advertising forecast
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Takeshi,Koyama Pages 4
Fuji Media Holdings announced FY3/10 results on 13 May. It forecasts FY3/11 OP to grow 78.9% YoY to JPY16.6b. Although this is slightly lower than the IFIS consensus outlook, we take a positive view of it forecasting high profit growth, driven by cost control and non-broadcasting revenue, while conservatively assuming a decline in advertising revenue.
Rakuten (4755) ( english | Japanese version ) May 14, 2010
1Q FY12/10: earnings progress unsurprising, management notes cost factors
Sector Broadcasting/Media Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Atsuo,Takahashi Pages 4
On 13 May, Rakuten announced 1Q FY12/10 earnings. OP was JPY13.0b, up 32% YoY, almost in line with the in-house company target. This figure represents 20% of our full-year forecast of JPY65.0b and 19% of the consensus forecast of JPY68.9b, roughly in line with the ratios at the same time last year. The overall OP margin improved by 1.6ppt to 16.4%, but this was mostly supported by an upturn in all the other businesses outside the e-commerce segment.
 
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