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Sector Outlook ( english | Japanese version ) Jul 27, 2010
Change in analyst coverage
Sector Energy Market Cap
Author Norimasa,Shinya Pages 16
Effective 27 July, the analyst covering the above company has changed from Hidetoshi Shioda to Norimasa Shinya. Inpex (1605), Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662), Showa Shell Sekiyu (5002), Cosmo Oil (5007), TonenGeneral Sekiyu (5012), AOC Holdings (5017), Idemitsu Kosan (5019), JX Holdings (5020)
Sector Outlook ( english | Japanese version ) Jul 16, 2010
Oil and Trading Company sectors
Sector Energy Market Cap
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 32
Forecasting rise in prices of iron ore, coal, and refining margin
JX Holdings (5020) ( english | Japanese version ) Jun 11, 2010
JPY80.0b estimated integration benefit positive, fuel-oil margin improvements
Sector Energy Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 7
We are revising our earnings estimates for JX Holdings based on the current operating environment and interviews with company management. Petroleum product margins appear to be improving at a gradual rate after bottoming in February, and we expect earnings to follow a recovery trend through FY3/13.
Japan Petroleum Exploration  (1662) ( english | Japanese version ) Jun 04, 2010
Raising estimates to reflect domestic natural gas price revisions
Sector Energy Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 4
We are raising our earnings estimates for Japan Petroleum Exploration (Japex) in light of company interviews and other research. In the domestic natural gas business, we are factoring in the impact of price revisions and raising our estimates for production volume due to a recovery in demand. Key elements in the company's medium-term growth strategy include domestic natural gas price revisions, oil development in Iraq, and oil sands in Canada.
Inpex  (1605) ( english | Japanese version ) Jun 02, 2010
Investment decision on Ichthys LNG project delayed to 4Q FY3/12
Sector Energy Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 6
We are lowering our price objective for Inpex to JPY1,200,000 and downwardly revising our DCF estimate, mainly as a result of the company pushing back its final investment decision (FID) on the Ichthys project, from FY3/11 to 4Q FY3/12, and delaying the expected start of production from FY3/16 to FY3/17.
Japan Petroleum Exploration  (1662) ( english | Japanese version ) May 18, 2010
Revising domestic natural gas prices, acquiring new interests key in medium term
Sector Energy Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 3
Japan Petroleum Exploration (Japex) announced FY3/10 results on 14 May. RP rose 3.8% YoY to JPY23.2b, due partly to lower domestic exploration costs and increased overseas dividend income. The company forecasts RP to fall 35.8% to JPY14.9b in FY3/11, but assumes the impact of lower dividend income and equity-method earnings will be greater than improved margins on domestically produced crude oil and natural gas.
Inpex  (1605) ( english | Japanese version ) May 12, 2010
Focus on progress of Ichthys LNG project
Sector Energy Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 3
Inpex announced FY3/10 results on 12 May. NP fell 26.1% YoY to JPY107.2b, and the company forecasts NP of JPY102.0b for FY3/11 for a drop of 4.9% YoY. While the company assumes a higher crude oil price, it also expects offsetting negatives from depreciation and the end of its gas sales to Shizuoka Gas.
JX Holdings (5020) ( english | Japanese version ) May 11, 2010
Raising forecast for merger benefits over next three years from JPY60b to JPY80b
Sector Energy Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 3
JX Holdings reported FY3/10 earnings on 10 May. Owing to a steep decline in petroleum product margins, the company incurred a recurring loss of JPY15.3b on a real basis (i.e., excluding an inventory revaluation gain of JPY202.6b). The target is for real RP of JPY170b in FY3/11, owing mainly to improved petroleum product margins. The company increased its forecast for merger benefits through FY3/13 in its medium-term plan from JPY60b to JPY80b.
Showa Shell Sekiyu (5002) ( english | Japanese version ) May 06, 2010
Real RP turns positive in 1Q FY12/10 on refining competitiveness
Sector Energy Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 3
Showa Shell Sekiyu announced 1Q FY12/10 results on 30 April. Excluding a JPY6.5b inventory valuation gain, real RP totaled JPY7.2b. Real profits were positive for the first time since 1Q FY12/09. The earnings recovery was due mainly to petroleum product margin improvement. We estimate that many of Showa Shell Sekiyu's competitors posted real recurring losses in their petroleum refining businesses in January-March 2010.
Idemitsu Kosan (5019) ( english | Japanese version ) Apr 30, 2010
Expect better petroleum, chemical product margins in FY3/11 on economic recovery
Sector Energy Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 3
Idemitsu Kosan announced FY3/10 results on 28 April. Real operating losses, excluding inventory valuation gains, worsened by JPY103.2b YoY to JPY18.9b, due mainly to deterioration in petroleum product margins. The company forecasts FY3/11 OP to improve in real terms by JPY72.9b to JPY50.0b on a bottoming out and upturn in petroleum product margins. Although this forecast is lower than our estimate of JPY73.1b, this difference is due mainly to the company's crude oil price assumption of $75/bbl and its cautious assumption for coal prices.
Idemitsu Kosan (5019) ( english | Japanese version ) Apr 13, 2010
FY10 thermal coal annual contract prices appear partially settled at $98/MT
Sector Energy Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 5
FY10 thermal coal annual contract prices appear to have been partially settled as a result of economic recovery in Asia and tight coal supply/ demand conditions. We are raising our FY3/11 thermal coal price assumption from $90/MT to $98/MT. Petroleum product margins are also recovering, prompting upward revisions to our FY3/11 and FY3/12 earnings estimates for Idemitsu Kosan.
JX Holdings (5020) ( english | Japanese version ) Apr 12, 2010
Aiming to be mega-conglomerate by improving efficiency, expanding interests (Initiating Coverage)
Sector Energy Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 9
JX Holdings was founded on 1 April. The company is overhauling its oil refining business by reducing surplus facilities, and plans to expand its resource development operations in oil and gas fields and copper mines. It is a mega-conglomerate active in the oil refining, resource development, and metal processing businesses.
Inpex  (1605) ( english | Japanese version ) Mar 09, 2010
Expect LNG projects, with production to begin in 2015, to be growth drivers
Sector Energy Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 6
We are revising our forex and crude oil price assumptions based on current trends, and we are revising our Inpex earnings estimates for FY3/10 - FY3/12. We expect new businesses, including the Ichthys LNG project in Australia, to be growth drivers in the medium to long term, and we reiterate our price objective of Y1,300,000 and our Outperform rating.
Tonen General Sekiyu (5012) ( english | Japanese version ) Mar 09, 2010
Positive on strong level of competitiveness in refining, despite severe industry conditions
Sector Energy Market Cap Large Cap > 400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 5
In light of reduced margins in petroleum products, we are downwardly revising our FY12/10 and FY12/11 earnings estimates for TonenGeneral Sekiyu, and lowering our fair-value estimate from Y870 to Y770. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the company will be able to maintain its annual FY12/10 dividend at Y38 per share, due to the strength of its highly competitive refining business and its sound financial position (the company's end-of-FY12/09 net D/E ratio was 0.1x).
Showa Shell Sekiyu (5002) ( english | Japanese version ) Mar 04, 2010
Company targets Y45.0b improvement in oil business earnings by FY12/14
Sector Energy Market Cap Mid Cap 200-400B
Author Hidetoshi,Shioda Pages 5
We are lowering our earnings estimates for Showa Shell Sekiyu in light of declining margins on oil products. We are also lowering our fair-value estimate from Y810 to Y720. Management plans, through improving added value and reducing costs, to achieve an earnings improvement in the struggling oil business of approximately Y45.0b by FY12/14. We expect improved earnings in the CIS solar battery business in FY12/12, after the No. 3 plant reaches full capacity.
 
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